Things cost more than they used to

I’m delivering a seminar on estimating capital costs for large transit projects soon. One of the main concepts that seems to confuse people is inflation (including the non-intuitive terms nominal and real costs). To guide this discussion, I’ve pulled data from Statistics Canada on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to make a few points.

The first point is that, yes, things do cost more than they used to, since prices have consistently increased year over year (this is the whole point of monetary policy). I’m illustrating this with a long-term plot of CPI in Canada from 1914-01-01 to 2019-11-01.

Figure showing the long-term increase in CPI from 1914 to 2019. An image of an old fashioned cany bar is on the left and large pile of modern candy on the right.

I added in the images of candy bars to acknowledge my grandmother’s observation that, when she was a kid, candy only cost a penny. I also want to make a point that although costs have increased, we also now have a much greater diversity of candy to choose from. There’s an important analogy here for estimating the costs of projects, particulary those with a significant portion of machinery or technology assets.

The next point I want to make is that location matters, which I illustrate with a zoomed in look at CPI for Canada, Ontario, and Toronto.

Figure showing CPI from 2000 to 2019 with separate lines for Toronto, Ontario, and Canada. They mostly align until about 2015, when Ontario starts increasing faster than Canada and Toronto faster than Ontario.

This shows that over the last five years Toronto has seen higher price increases than the rest of the province and country. This has implications for project costing, since we may need to consider the source of materials and location of the project to choose the most appropriate CPI adjustment.

The last point I want to make is that the type of product also matters. To start, I illustrate this by comparing CPI for apples and alcoholic beverages (why not, there are 330 product types in the data and I have to pick a couple of examples to start).

Figure showing CPI from the 1950s with separate lines for apples and alcoholic beverages. Both are relatively flat through the 1950s and 1960s then start to increase rapidly. Apples fluctuate alot in each year.

In addition to showing how relative price inflation between products can change over time (the line for apples crosses the one for alcoholic beverages several times), this chart shows how short-term fluctuations in price can also differ. For example, the line for apples fluctuates dramatically within a year (these are monthly values), while alcoholic beverages is very smooth over time.

Once I’ve made the point with a simple example, I can then follow up with something more relevant to transit planners by showing how the price of transportation, public transportation, and parking have all changed over time, relative to each other and all-items (the standard indicator).

Figure showing CPI from 2000 to 2019 with separate lines for parking costs, transportation, public transit, and all-items. All-items is the lowest and closely tracked by transportation. Public transportation diverges around 2015 and rises dramatically. Parking fees are by far the highest.

At least half of transit planning seems to actually be about parking, so that parking fees line is particularly relevant.

Making these charts is pretty straightforward, the only real challenge is that the data file is large and unwieldy. The code I used is here.

I finished Season 3 of The Leftovers, a fascinating exploration of loss, love, and family. Well worth watching if you like mysterious plots and unresolved narratives. The actors and writing are great and the ending is satisfying. 📺

We take Boxing Day seriously here as a day of relaxation. So, I’m disappointed to have exceeded my 0 minutes target. The spike around 2 was when I went upstairs for a nap 😴

An exercise graph shows sporadic activity with a total of 4 out of 30 recommended minutes completed for the day.

I’m most certainly in the target demographic, so perhaps not surprising that I enjoyed For All Mankind. I like these sorts of alternative histories and space exploration is a fascinating topic. I’m looking forward to whatever comes in season 2. 📺

The Stiehl Assassin by Terry Brooks is okay. Given this is the last series he plans to write, I’m curious to see where he takes the fourth book. Based on the three books so far, the plot is pretty standard for Shannara series. I’d hoped for something more dramatic.

After the original series, I think the Genesis of Shannara series is the most inventive one. 📚

Declaring podcasts bankruptcy

Podcasts are great. I really enjoy being able to pick and choose interesting conversations from such a broad swath of topics. Somewhere along the way though, I managed to subscribe to way more than I could ever listen to and the unlistened count was inducing anxiety (I know, a real first world problem).

So, time to start all over again and only subscribe to a chosen few:

  • Quirks & Quarks is the one I’ve been subscribed to the longest and is a reliable overview of interesting science stories. I’ve been listening to this one for so long that I used to rely on an AppleScript to get episodes into my original scroll wheel iPod, well before podcasts were embraced by Apple.
  • In Our Time is another veteran on my list. I really like the three-academics format and Melvyn Bragg is a great moderator. This show has a fascinating diversity of topics in science, history, and literature.
  • All Songs Considered has helped me keep up with the latest music and Bob Boilen is a very good interviewer.
  • The Talk Show has kept me up to date on the latest in Apple and related news since at least 2007.
  • Exponent has really helped me think more clearly about strategy with discussions of tech and society.
  • Focused has been a very helpful biweekly reminder to think more carefully about what I’m working on and how to optimize my systems.
  • Making Sense has had reliably interesting discussions from Sam Harris. It just recently went behind a paywall. But I’m happy to pay for it, which comes with access to the Waking Up app.
  • I admire what Jesse Brown has built with CANADALAND and happily support it.
  • Reconcilable Differences is a bit niche, though I enjoy the dynamics between the hosts.
  • Mindscape has had some of the most interesting episodes of any of my subscriptions in the last several months. There’s definitely a bias towards quantum mechanics and physics, but there’s nothing wrong with that.
  • Liftoff keeps me up to date on space news.
  • The Incomparable is great for geek culture.

When all together on a list like this, it looks like a lot. Many are biweekly though, so they don’t accumulate.

I use Overcast for listening to these. I’ve tried many other apps and this one has the right mix of features and simplicity for me. I also appreciate the freedom of the Apple Watch integration which allows me to leave my phone at home and still have podcasts to listen to.

This is How You Lose the Time War by Amal El-Mohtar and Max Gladstone is an imaginative literary romance novel wrapped in a time travel espionage plot. I really enjoyed it, though it was not at all like my usual sci-fi reading 📚