In this article Nassim Nicholas Taleb applies his Black Swan idea to the current financial crisis and describes the strengths and weaknesses of econometrics.
For us the world is vastly simpler in some sense than the academy, vastly more complicated in another. So the central lesson from decision-making (as opposed to working with data on a computer or bickering about logical constructions) is the following: it is the exposure (or payoff) that creates the complexity —and the opportunities and dangers— not so much the knowledge ( i.e., statistical distribution, model representation, etc.). In some situations, you can be extremely wrong and be fine, in others you can be slightly wrong and explode. If you are leveraged, errors blow you up; if you are not, you can enjoy life.
Steven Weinberg provides a great overview of the tension between science and religion and a discussion of morality in the absence of God.
Living without God isn’t easy. But its very difficulty offers one other consolation—that there is a certain honor, or perhaps just a grim satisfaction, in facing up to our condition without despair and without wishful thinking—with good humor, but without God.
The core of any government reflects the personality of the prime minister, because everyone in the system responds to his or her ways of thinking, personality traits, political ambitions and policy preferences. Know the prime minister; know the government.
Harper has been an enigma and learning more about his personal policies and approach to governance is very useful while thinking about the upcoming election.
A general summary of the article comes from near the end:
And the long-distance runner – bright, intense, strategic, cautious and confident in every stride – has certainly got things done, from merging two parties, to winning a minority government, to fulfilling most of his campaign promises.
He also has pursued two broad changes in the nature of the federal government: giving the provinces more running room by keeping Ottawa out of some of their affairs and giving individuals a bit more money in the form of tax reductions, credits and child-care cheques.
And yet, despite these policies that he assumed would be popular, despite all the problems on the Liberal side, despite raising far more money, despite governing in mostly excellent economic times, despite stroking Quebec, despite gearing up for elections, his Conservatives have yet to break through decisively.
A New Bank to Save Our Infrastructure - The New York Review of Books
Dan Gardner interviews Harvard University economist Gregory Mankiw on climate change economics. The article is an interesting description of the differences between cap-and-trade and carbon tax policies.
So why is the cap-and-trade option preferred by almost all politicians? As usual, it’s politics. Under cap-and-trade, politicians can claim they are hitting “big polluters” while leaving the ordinary person unscathed. That’s nonsense, of course. Costs borne by big polluters will be passed on, so the ordinary person pays either way. But with cap-and-trade, unlike a carbon tax, the cost to the ordinary person is hidden.
The cycles in economic fashion show how far economics is from being a science. One cannot think of any natural science in which orthodoxy swings between two poles. What gives economics the appearance of a science is that its propositions can be expressed mathematically by abstracting from the real world.
This is an excellent post by Merlin Mann and something I’ve been thinking about a fair bit recently.
Now that I’m halfway through my parental leave with Kelly and the kids, I’m wondering about all of the distractions I have opted into – especially on the internet. When I have a few free minutes, is refreshing my Twitter feed really a priority? It shouldn’t be. So, I’ve been cutting back, cancelling my Facebook, Digg, Reddit, Last.fm, etc. accounts and trying to be much more careful with my time and attention.
Senate Report on “Emergency Preparedness in Canada”
This report is well worth a read just for the direct – almost sarcastic – writing. Some of the report’s commentary on the bureaucratic replies to the senate committee’s queries is fantastic.
globeandmail.com: Half-truths and zingers on the campaign trail
NPR’s All Songs Considered provides an entertaining discussion of ‘80s music. They play some classic bad '80s music, but also find some great songs from the decade.
Even before the writ has dropped, the Tory campaign has made clear its intention to portray Mr. Harper as a minivan-driving hockey dad from the suburbs. The Liberal Leader, Stéphane Dion, by contrast, is to be ruthlessly caricatured as a wimpy and elitist academic of the mad-professor type.
Is it really good for future generations - the alleged beneficiaries of this deluded parsimony - to pass down a clapped out wreck of a town in need of major repairs and upgrades, long-deferred works that become more expensive with every minute they are neglected?
Only when significant numbers of people lived downtown, planners believed, could central cities regain their historic role as magnets for culture and as a source of identity and pride for the metropolitan areas they served. Now that’s starting to happen, fueled by the changing mores of the young and by gasoline prices fast approaching $5-per-gallon.
Success in the sciences unquestionably takes a lot of hard work, sustained over many years. Students usually have to catch the science bug in grade school and stick with it to develop the competencies in math and the mastery of complex theories they need to progress up the ladder. Those who succeed at the level where they can eventually pursue graduate degrees must have not only abundant intellectual talent but also a powerful interest in sticking to a long course of cumulative study.
Ontario is not Alberta, and the philosophy that provincial rights should be paramount has always had to compete with a powerful sense that Canada comes first.
